Kaïs Saied's Tunisia is the only country in the Arab world to refuse to recognize the new Syrian regime of Ahmed Al-Sharaa.
As Syria transitions under interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, Tunisia, led by Kaïs Saied, maintains a cautious stance, refraining from recognizing his leadership. This hesitation stems from historical ties with Assad, domestic challenges, and the influence of perceived regional shifts. Tunisia's foreign policy remains reactive, complicating its response to Syria's evolving situation.
hassan benyoub 
March 11, 2025 – As Syria navigates its transitional phase under interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Tunisia’s response remains notably reserved. Unlike many Arab nations adapting to Syria’s new geopolitical reality, Tunisia, led by President Kaïs Saied, has refrained from officially recognizing Al-Sharaa’s leadership, reflecting a blend of historical ties, domestic priorities, and strategic caution.
Historical Ties with the Assad Regime
Tunisia’s relationship with Syria has seen significant shifts over the past decade. Diplomatic relations were cut in 2012 amid the Syrian civil war, but under Saied’s leadership, ties warmed considerably. In April 2023, Saied welcomed Syrian Foreign Minister Fayçal al-Meqdad, emphasizing Tunisia’s intent to strengthen "historical ties of brotherhood" with Assad’s government. This rapprochement peaked after Saied’s October 2024 re-election, when Assad congratulated him, highlighting their shared opposition to "deviant intellectual currents" and a mutual desire to bolster bilateral relations. This backdrop of solidarity with Assad complicates Tunisia’s response to his removal.
A Measured Reaction to Regime Change
When rebel forces, led by Al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), toppled Assad on December 9, 2024, Tunisia’s official reaction was subdued. While Syrian refugees in Tunisia celebrated the end of Assad’s five-decade rule, the Tunisian Foreign Ministry issued statements that avoided endorsing the new leadership. Initially, Tunis condemned "terrorist attacks" during the opposition’s offensive, expressing solidarity with Damascus. Post-Assad, a subsequent statement called for "upholding Syria’s unity and sovereignty" and rejecting foreign interference, yet conspicuously omitted any reference to Al-Sharaa or his interim government.
Why the Hesitation?
Analysts attribute Tunisia’s reluctance to several factors. Firstly, Saied’s administration may be grappling with the loss of a key regional ally in Assad, with whom it shared a vision of resisting external ideological pressures. Secondly, Tunisia’s foreign policy under Saied has been criticized as lacking coherence, often reacting to events rather than shaping them. Ahmed Ghalioufi, a political commentator cited in The New Arab, noted that "Tunisia’s hesitation stems from a deeper issue—its lack of a coherent foreign policy," exacerbated by domestic challenges that have left little bandwidth for strategic diplomacy.
Additionally, Saied’s own governance style—marked by a consolidation of power, a 90.7% re-election victory in 2024 with low voter turnout, and the jailing of political rivals—may render Syria’s transition unsettling. The fall of Assad to a popular uprising could be seen as a cautionary tale, potentially inspiring pro-democracy sentiments in Tunisia, where the 2011 revolution’s democratic gains have eroded under Saied’s rule.
International Spotlight and Criticism
Tunisia’s position has not gone unnoticed. U.S. Senator Joe Wilson sharply criticized Saied for backing Assad’s "dictatorial" regime, warning that such support could foreshadow Saied’s own political fate. This rebuke from a prominent American figure underscores broader Western frustration with Tunisia’s stance, especially as other nations engage with Al-Sharaa to stabilize Syria post-conflict.
Tunisia’s Unique Position—or Not?
While some posts on X suggest Tunisia is the lone Arab state yet to recognize Syria’s new leadership, this claim lacks definitive evidence as of March 2025. Many Arab countries have indeed moved toward pragmatic engagement with Al-Sharaa—Saudi Arabia, for instance, congratulated him and pledged support for Syria’s recovery—yet the full spectrum of Arab responses remains fluid. Tunisia’s hesitation, however, is distinctive given its prior alignment with Assad and its current silence on Al-Sharaa’s legitimacy.
Looking Ahead
Tunisia’s cautious approach to Syria’s new leadership under Ahmed Al-Sharaa reflects a mix of loyalty to past alliances, internal political calculations, and a reactive foreign policy. As Al-Sharaa consolidates power—promising elections within four years and a national dialogue—pressure may mount on Tunisia to clarify its stance. For now, Saied’s government appears content to watch from the sidelines, wary of a regional shift that could echo too closely at home.
